It’s mid February and I (and others) believe that we are on the very cusp of the spring market blooming into full effect. Higher numbers of showings, sales and the average sale price in our area is trending up. These are a few key metrics that have brought a brighter outlook to our market, at least from those in the industry.
Now, I love stats and I have been keeping a close eye on a couple of interesting little tid bits that I think will help explain my rosy outlook on the real estate world in the coming months. Here they are, quick hitter style:
#1: list price to sale price average is sitting at 97.6% for the month which is up very slightly from the month before at 97% flat. I broke this down into two separate groups for further analysis and was surprised by the results. Homes that sold firm (went from active to pending) vs homes that sold conditionally (went from conditional to pending) anticipating that homes that sold firm would sell for a higher percentage of the list price. What I found was that there was virtually no difference between homes that sold firm vs conditional so far this month. This is an important stat for Sellers that are looking at pricing their homes and negotiating sales. You are in a no worse position price wise by accepting a conditional sale and for those sellers that want to build in a ”negotiation buffer” to their list prices, 2.5% is the average these days!
#2: number of conditional sales vs firm sales. This is something I started paying attention to this week as I’ve noticed an increase in both numbers that are being reported to our MLS system. We have definitely seen an increase in the number of sales overall since the BoC announcement on January 25th and I was curious what the breakdown was. Mainly because conditional sales become pending sales when a Buyer waives or fulfills their conditions and essentially count twice. Here’s how it breaks down: around 30% of homes are selling firm this month and the remaining 70% are sold conditionally. This is good to know for both Buyers and Sellers! Buyers can feel confident in that most homes are sold conditional these days and they can exercise their due diligence. Sellers shouldn’t be afraid of conditional offers for the same reason and for the next statistic.
#3: what percentage of conditional sales go through? When a Buyer and Seller agree on a conditional offer, there are two typical outcomes of such an offer: either the Buyer fulfills their conditions and firms up the purchase or they are unable to meet the conditions and the deal falls apart, property goes back on the market. So what percentage of conditional sales end up in each camp? Here we are: this week, we had 76 conditional offers convert to pending on our system and only 11 come back to market. So an 87.4% rate of success for conditional purchases in the past 7 days! That’s a fairly high rate.
#4 days to sell this month is currently at 24. That would represent a low number of days to sell since last August. Previous entries into this data set since last August: 27, 29, 30, 30, 34, 34 and now 24. That’s positive.
#5 number of new listings is currently trending to 81.7% of the 5 year average for February. This would be a significant decrease in expected number of listings compared to what we have been seeing since April/May of last year. Listings have been average to above average compared to the previous five years since that point. Any decrease in new listings is only going to fuel what seems to be an already tight market for attractive listings.
There’s the quick hitters! I’m curious to hear what y’all think of these metrics and whether you agree with me on the picture they paint for us heading into the warm weather market. Enjoy your long Family Day weekend!
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