The REAL Market Report: June 2025

Here we are in the summer of 2025, it's not quite been the year that many people thought it would be, especially when it comes to the real estate market. Half way through the year, we can look back and reflect on a fairly large sample size that paints a very consistent picture.

Flat prices, low sales, high numbers of listings (a lot of properties being listed multiple times) and an ever growing stockpile of active listings available for buyers to peruse.

Until this past month, those trends have held true every single month of 2025. Any guesses as to which stat has change course this past month?

I’ll let you ruminate on that for a second.

For those that have been following along since I started my monthly reports and titled them the REAL Market Report, you will know that the reason I chose that name. I wanted to cut through all the bull shit narratives that media outlets use to draw attention to their websites and publications and focus on stats to draw conclusions based on reality and not sentiment.

I was sick of always hearing that either the sky was going to fall and house prices would drop 50% overnight or that house prices were too expensive and would continue to go up until nobody could afford to buy a home in their desired location.

Neither of those things has come true as the market has gone up (significantly) and come down (less significantly). But there is no in between when it comes to attracting clicks and views, extreme headlines get attention and everything else is too boring to garner any attention these days.

I did check in with a few sites to see what they were reporting about real estate stats for June and I was pleasantly surprised when it came to reading what our local paper had to say.

No crazy headlines, no defamatory statements, no bias or angle created. They got it pretty much right without offering some sort of distracting nonsense.

Perhaps this is because real estate has tumbled down the hierarchy of flashy news topics in 2025. It does seem to be on a lot less people’s minds these days. Anyhow, it was almost as refreshing as jumping into an 83 degree pool on a hot and humid summer day.

Onward we go.

Average prices: still flat. If you guessed that there was either a meaningful jump or drop in prices last night, I am sorry to say that you are out of the game.

In London last month, the average sale price across all housing types was $640,704 which was about 1% less than the month before and 2.5% less than June 2024. I was actually a little surprised at the end result for prices last month. I check all of these stats somewhat regularly throughout the month and there were some absolutely massive sales in June that brought weekly averages up, but didn’t do much to buoy the entire month after all was said and done.

Would it interest you to know that the average sale price in June of 2024 was the highest such figure for all of last year? That has only happened one other time in the 13 years that I have reliable statistics for: 2014. So place your bets now that June of 2034 will also have the highest average sale price in all of that year.

Number of new listings in June 2025: 1204. A little higher than last year, quite a bit lower than May of this year. That number is only 5.75% higher than the 10 year average for June. Only. I’m not sure if that’s a joke or not. Regardless, we’re on pace for a lot of new listings in all of 2025.

Now for the main event: number of sales. This has been my number one focus so far in 2025 mainly because I know there will continue to be high numbers of listings and average sale price has proved to be as consistent as the Leafs losing in disappointing fashion.

This is the only source of excitement!

The number of sales in June blew me away and absolutely crushed my expectation of 430 sales. There were… drum roll please…

491 sales in June 2025.

After three straight months of massively underperforming compared to the 10 year average, June 2025 comes in at 68.26% of the 10yr. That far outpaces the previous stretch from March to May and could represent a turning point as far as actual activity. I want to stress that it COULD market a turning point. It could also be a one month pop.

I want to say that while 491 is better than I expected, it is still less than last year and is still the lowest sales figure for the month of June in the last 13 years. 2025 will be the lowest year for sales in London that we have seen in a long time.

It’s not all doom and gloom here though. For all of LSTAR’s area there were more sales in June 2025 than in June 2024. It was a big month for St. Thomas and all of the smaller areas outside of London.

Interestingly enough, there was another bucked trend last month!  Following that massive number of sales, there was actually a decline in active listings. From 2110 available homes at the end of May, we are down to 2090 at the end of June. Not a crazy drop, but the first drop in active listings so far this year.

Again, I am most interested in the number of sales that are going to occur each month until the end of the year. Personally, I don’t think that there will be a massive uptick in sales activity this year. Nothing is going to change until our economy improves and we make a deal with the US.

As of this writing, there are two weeks until the somewhat meaningful timeline for a deal to be struck comes to an end. I am hopeful that something happens on that front but I won’t be surprised if it doesn’t happen, or somehow gets worse.

Even if we make a deal, it will take time for citizens of both countries to actually see stability and live under the terms of the new agreement. This is to say “I’ll believe it when I see it” and then maybe your average home buyer will be confident enough to move forward or enter the market.

There are four more interest rate announcements coming from the Bank of Canada this year. Some “experts” are calling for two more interest rate reductions of .25% a piece, others think there will be one cut or none at all.

I am here to tell you that whatever happens with interest rates, it is not nearly as important as what I described above.

The overnight rate in Canada went from 5% to 2.75% in a year, prices remained flat and sales are hitting rock bottom. Rates are not what is holding back buyers. It is the economy, it is the uncertainty. It is fear.

Until we have a clear path forward and proof that the Canadian economy is safe and headed in the right direction, I don’t think things are going to change. And when they do, it’s going to take some time for prices to follow.